The Packers’ Playoff Odds Are About To Dramatically Swing One Way Or Another

Green Bay Packers The Packers’ Playoff Odds Are About To Dramatically Swing One Way Or Another Photo Credit: Sarah Kloepping via Imagn Images By Mitch Widmeier - November 13, 2026 It’s rare for a team to be dead last in its division with a 6-3 record, yet that’s where the Green Bay Packers find themselves. The odds of the Packers making the playoffs are still strong, but Sunday afternoon’s result against the Minnesota Vikings will swing things heavily in one direction or the other. Per The Athletic’s model , the Packers have a 64% chance to make the playoffs. Those odds jumped significantly after the win over the New England Patriots. It makes sense given the gauntlet the NFC North has been and the difference between being one game over .500 at 5-4 compared to three games over at 6-3. Despite having a 64% chance to make the playoffs, Green Bay still has the lowest odds of any team in the North. The Detroit Lions have a 76% chance of making it, while the Vikings check in at 77%. The Chicago Bears take the cake at 88%. A win on Sunday for the Packers would sway things in their favor and see them leapfrog Minnesota. How drastic would it be, though? If the Packers lose to Minnesota, the odds of making the dance drop from 64% to 46%, or back to basically a coin flip. However, if they win, the odds leap from 64% to 76%. Furthermore, if the Packers want any chance to compete for an NFC North title this year and host at least one playoff game, winning this weekend is a must. The odds aren’t great right now for the Packers to claim the division crown. Even with a win over the Vikings, the Packers don’t become the favorite. However, a win on Sunday would give Green Bay a 20% chance to win the North. With a loss, that number spirals to 3% and all but seals the deal. Breaking down the 64% chance Green Bay makes the postseason, the model gives them a 51% chance to be a Wild Card team and just a 9% chance of hosting a Wild Card game. There’s still an ever-slim 4% chance they claim the top seed. If we want to peek ahead a little bit, these next two games figure to be significant. Green Bay hosts the Vikings, has a bye, then plays the Los Angeles Rams on the road the night before Thanksgiving. The Rams are dealing with some notable injuries, primarily at wide receiver, with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams both being on injured reserve. Two wins for Green Bay would make the odds of appearing in the playoffs 91%. A pair of losses and it’s 32%. A 1-1 split, regardless of who the win and loss come against, would put the Packers between 66% and 68%. It’s prove-it time for the Packers. Minnesota will have the boost of getting Kirk Cousins back after pulling him away from the Las Vegas Raiders. The Cousins reunion will generate a ton of chatter, but the real difference will come when Jordan Love is on the field against that Brian Flores defense. Flores and the Vikings got the better of Love and the Packers in Week 1. One massive difference will be at guard this go-around. In Week 1, the Packers started Donovan Jennings and Jacob Monk at guard. It was the first career start for both at those positions. This time it will be a combination of Laken Tomlinson , Kevin Zeitler , and Aaron Banks . Banks is the question mark, who was banged up against the Patriots. The key will be limiting the “meltdowns” against this Flores defense, as LaFleur put it . “We had some meltdowns at the end of the game that really cost us, where we didn’t have our guys on the same page,” LaFleur said. “On one, we got knocked off a block, and on one of the sack/fumbles, we miscommunicated protection.” Love is ready for the chess match. He’s connected on more explosive pass plays than any other quarterback in the league this year. Speaking to reporters earlier in the week, Love talked about being able to hit on those plays against this defense. It’s never easy going against this defense. It’s always a challenge. Every week is a new test for them, and there’s so much different stuff you’ve got to prepare for. Who knows if they’ll do that in the game? … They live in the world of chaos and try to make you confused. We definitely want to live in that world of trying to find those explosives. Sunday was already a big game. It’s a divisional rivalry at Lambeau Field, and it’s Kirk Cousins’ return to the Vikings. In terms of playoff probabilities, it’s a massive game for the Packers. Win, and the playoff odds jump up to a semi-comfortable range. Lose, and they sink back to a coin flip. Mitch Widmeier Mitch Widmeier covers the Green Bay Packers for Zone Coverage. Mitch comes over from FanDuel Sports Network where he was in the content department. Follow his YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/@Mitch_I_Am and at @m_widmeier on Twitter. All Articles