The Twins’ Increased Payroll Won’t Matter If They Don’t Make Smarter Offseason Moves

With MLB expected to begin a potentially lengthy lockout in just over two weeks, the Minnesota Twins are embarking on an important offseason. The Twins have missed the playoffs in five of the past six seasons, and the front office has been vocal, telling fans to expect an increased payroll and that the team will “exhaust our energy” to improve the roster.

The Details

Those words sound good, but fans have heard them before. The Twins have spent money in the past, but that hasn’t led to great decisions. While seeing Tom Pohlad open the checkbook to bring talent in (or keep it) would be a great development, the Twins face the unique challenge of identifying players who can actually help the team.

Obviously, Twins fans will welcome any action as they crawl toward the beginning of the lockout on Dec. 1. But finding the right players will be key to making this offseason different.

Pohlad told reporters last season that a $100 million payroll won’t help the team compete in the AL Central, even in a division where four of the five teams ranked in the bottom half of MLB in payroll, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

The Twins also made it clear that they are working to re-sign Ryan Jeffers, extending a $23.15 million qualifying offer but also showing “genuine interest” in a multi-year deal to bring him back, according to The Athletic’s Dan Hayes.

“We’re engaged and definitely have real, genuine interest in a reunion,” Twins GM Jeremy Zoll said during the general managers’ meetings this week. “(We) just keep working through that process.”

Seeing the Twins pay the price for Jeffers, which FanGraphs projects at three years and $48 million, and could be up to four years and $75 million according to Hayes, would be a step in the right direction. But the Twins also need to improve the team around Jeffers if they bring him back, which is where the challenge begins.

Older fans may remember when the Twins forked over a four-year, $49 million contract to pitcher Ricky Nolasco in 2014. While he was brought in to stabilize the rotation, he floundered, posting a 15-22 record and a 5.44 ERA before the Twins traded him to the Los Angeles Angels in 2016.

In 2016, the Twins added

Byung-Ho Park to a four-year, $12 million deal to add power at first base. But while the Korean import could hit a fastball a long way, he couldn’t do it consistently. The Twins demoted him to Triple-A, and he returned to Korea after only 62 games.

Those moves were during an old regime led by general manager Terry Ryan. But Derek Falvey has also had misses in free agency.

Minnesota spent on free agents in 2018. However, they did it on Lance Lynn, Addison Reed, and Logan Morrison, who added negative net value to the roster.

Josh Donaldson signed the largest free-agent contract in Twins history when he agreed to a four-year, $92 million deal in 2020. However, he struggled with injuries and caused friction in the clubhouse before they traded him to the New York Yankees in 2022.

Matt Shoemaker,

Christian Vazquez are some of the names that the Twins spent money on and didn’t get a proper return on their investment. There were some hits along the way, like Nelson Cruz in 2019 and Carlos Correa in 2022. However, those moves were the result of Cruz’s age cliff and Correa signing a six-year, $200 million deal in 2023 after he failed physicals for mega-deals with the New York Mets and San Francisco Giants.

So while a lot of the talk is getting past the “They were in on him” phase and actually spending money, they must spend money on the right players.

Jeffers is one case where fans may be surprised to see them write the check. But if the contract is four years instead of three, the Twins could be paying top dollar for a catcher who will be 34 by the end of that contract.

Assuming the Twins also aren’t working on a deal for Tarik Skubal, plenty of other free-agent landmines could see them spend money only to have it blow up in their face.

There’s also an interesting dynamic where more players could become available if MLB implements a salary cap in the collective bargaining agreement. Even if that cap won’t come until 2028, it’s still not a bad idea to wait and see if more opportunities present themselves once (or if) a new collective bargaining agreement is finalized.

That may not matter to the Twins, who are still trying to buy back “Don From Woodbury” after trimming the payroll back in 2023. But spending won’t matter if they get the wrong guys, and it’s where this offseason has to be different to build a competitive roster.

Chris Schad

Schad covers the Minnesota Vikings for Zone Coverage. He also writes for Bring Me The News and The Viking Age and hosts The Homer Horn Podcast.