Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks 11/12

Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 11/12 By Nick Hamaty - November 12, 2026 Locks NFL (0.75 Unit) JJ McCarthy Under 207.5 Passing Yards (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video I expect this game to be an under environment, but with the total already having crashed a full touchdown, I’d rather take something that hasn’t had the value sucked out of it. The weather isn’t looking great in East Rutherford tonight, with a good amount of rain and some wind that explains the drop on the total. But I don’t think the prop total here has correspondingly dropped enough, especially considering what the weather does to the passing game. And McCarthy is coming into this game on short rest after dealing with an injury on Sunday, so I’d be surprised to see the Giants turn him loose. An ugly, weather-impacted, run heavy game is what I expect tonight, so look for JJ’s resurrection to take a detour here. NBA (0.5 Unit) Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on NBA TV Oh yeah, I almost forgot about the Wolves since they’ve had three full days between games. That kind of rest is extremely rare in today’s NBA and I’m sure they’ll pay for it with some nasty back-to-backs down the road, but tonight I think they use it to their advantage. The market seems to think Minnesota has the advantage here since this number is continuing to climb, but at less than two full possessions I’m glad to back the team that at 10-1 ATS is leading the league. The Wolves are just playing too well right now, and Target Center has been a house of horrors for visiting underdogs in recent years. Dallas has shown some flashes themselves, but also have some unacceptable losses which is not the case for the Wolves to this point. This three-game winning streak for the Mavs has come against extremely weak competition, and I don’t think they’re ready for the level of competition here. Minnesota’s spacing is a thing of beauty, and they have the perfect lengthy defender in Jaden McDaniels to send at Cooper Flagg, so look for the rested Wolves to pull away tonight. NBA (0.25 Unit) Grayson Allen Over 3.5 Made Three’s (+105; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on League Pass I’m not sure Phoenix deserves to be a 6.5 point favorite over anyone, and I’d expect Charlotte to put up a fight now that they’re fresh off an impressive win. That fight should be led in large part by Allen, who’s in a revenge spot here as he visits the arena where he played for the past three seasons. Allen has a tendency to run hot and cold as a high-volume three-point shooter, but he leads the Hornets in makes per game at 3.5 and faces a Suns team that’s 25th in three-point percentage defense. Charlotte’s highest-volume three point shooter, Brandon Miller, will miss this game, and Kon Knueppel is still on the shelf for another month, so I’d expect Allen to be firing away from deep here. At a plus-juice price, I’m in on this prop given the situational angle. NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Southern/Minnesota Under 142.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on B1G+ What a win by the Gophers in Cincinnati on Monday, having everything go right for them in the final sequence. Buzzer-beating road wins tend to have a downside though, as they often create a letdown spot, especially when the winner comes home to face a soft opponent. That’s what the Gophers get here in Southern, and while I wouldn’t lay the big number of points with Minnesota, I think that letdown shows up in the scoring. I truly don’t understand why this total has gone up after opening above the KenPom projection of 138 points, since the Gophers might be sluggish and Southern simply can’t score. The Jaguars are 321st in adjusted offensive efficiency, and an up-tempo style can’t net them points either as they’ve only scored 60.3 PPG. That pace won’t work in The Barn against a Gophers team that’s now playing at the 10th-slowest adjusted tempo in the country, and Minnesota’s 16th-ranked defense should be able to clamp down. I see this much like the other Gopher home games against weak competition that fell in the 130’s, so I’m on the under again here. Degenerates No degenerates today. Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 30-46 (-6.10 Units) – Recommend: Fade Hard Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. Nick Hamaty Nick Hamaty, an Iowa State graduate, specializes in sports betting and the Minnesota Twins. He is also a huge fan of Tony Romo and NAV. All Articles